Feinstein's Findings: Regroup and Refocus

New York Times bestselling author, John Feinstein, is back for another season with the Black Knights and will report in after each football game during the 2019 season. Feinstein's weekly report will be posted to GoArmyWestPoint.com following each battle on the gridiron.

WEST POINT, N.Y. - There was never any doubt that October was going to be a far more difficult month than September for this Army football team. That probably explains why Coach Jeff Monken was so upset with his team both during and after the Morgan State game—the September finale.

Army won that game 52-21, but Monken's coach's eyes and his gut told him all was not right with the Black Knights.

Unfortunately, his eyes and his guts were right.

It is worth noting that the three October opponents to date are now a combined 15-6—each 5-2--after Georgia State's 28-21 victory in rainy Atlanta Saturday night. By comparison, the three teams Army beat in September are 4-13. Records can be deceiving, they are sometimes the product of a team's schedule, but that's not the case here. Tulane, Western Kentucky and Georgia State are all solid football teams.

Which, Monken would be the first to tell you, is no excuse for Army's first three game losing streak since 2015, or for the fact that the Black Knights are now 3-4 and their hopes for a fourth consecutive bowl trip are in jeopardy.

My friend and colleague Joe Beckerle, made the comment on Saturday's pre-game show that, if Western Kentucky had been a 'must,' win this was a 'must, must,' win. He took the words right out of my mouth.

There were certainly signs of progress in this game—just not enough of them. The Black Knights, who had dropped from first in the country in time-of-possession last season (38 minutes a game) to 58^th—a little more than 30 minutes per game through six contests—held the ball for 38 minutes. Their three main rushers—quarterback Kelvin Hopkins and fullbacks Connor Slomka and Sandon McCoy—all had good moments, combining for 230 yards on 49 carries—including two impressive touchdown runs by the rapidly-improving McCoy.

Hopkins only completed six passes, but four were to Cam Harrison, who is becoming a legitimate threat as a receiver. The Black Knights also came up with a key turnover in the second quarter when Panthers quarterback Dan Ellington fumbled on the three-yard-line and Cole Christiansen jumped on the ball to stop a drive with the score tied, 7-7.

So, with all of those positives, why did the night add up to another loss?

Several reasons: First, Army lost the turnover battle—always critical—two-to-one, the first coming on a Jakobi Buchanan fumble shortly after the Christiansen recovery; the second on a semi-desperation Hopkins to Harrison pass on a fourth-and-four in the final minute. Second, after closing the first half with a 12-play, 75-yard drive to tie the game at 14 and opening the second half with an almost identical 12-play, 75-yard drive to take the lead, 21-14, the Army offense didn't score again. At the moment that Jalen Moy took a pitch on an end around and dove into the end zone from 16-yards out to give Army its first lead since early in the first quarter of the Tulane game (a little more than 10 quarters if you're scoring at home) the Black Knights had completely dominated the critical time-of-possession stat: almost 28 minutes to nine minutes. The rest of the night, the stat went the other way: Georgia State piecing together two long, time-killing drives that helped add up to almost 14 minutes as opposed to Army's 10.

More important—of course—was the score during the game's last 23 minutes: Georgia State-14, Army-0.

The Panthers two scoring drives traveled 75 yards and 81 yards, the first requiring 16 plays; the second 11. Ellington, yet another in a series of senior transfer quarterbacks Army has faced, was superb most of the night. He completed 20-of-28 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns, finding seven different receivers. He also ran effectively, especially on the drive that answered Army's opening third quarter salvo. He carried the ball four times—once for no gain—but for nine, nine and ten yards on the other three. Running back Tra Barnett chipped in with 17 carries for 108 yards and the touchdown that cut Army's lead to 21-20 late in the third quarter.

The Black Knights then caught a break when Brandon Wright missed the extra point, allowing them to hang on to the lead.

A year ago, Army's 11-2 season was filled with moments like that: small mistakes by the opponent that ultimately played a role in an Army victory. The Black Knights aren't likely to blow many teams out and they are much too tough mentally to get blown out very often themselves. If you take out the game against FCS Morgan State, the total score of Army's six game against FBS opponents (in regulation) is 121-121. That tells you that every little thing can matter—and, in the case of this team, has mattered: turnovers—Army's now lost eight fumbles in seven games after losing five in 13 games last year; penalties—Army's averaging 39 yards in penalties per game, some at crucial moments; and, keeping the defense off the field: Army's now run 451 plays; the opposition 455. That explains the time-of-possession gap from last year.

In the end though, the stats may explain some of what's gone wrong, but they don't matter.

Army was certainly good enough to win Saturday night. After Moy's touchdown, it was exactly where it wanted to be. It had the lead and the momentum. A defensive stop of any kind at that moment and it might have taken completely control. Instead, for the third straight game, the defense gave up a long grinding drive—and then a second long, grinding drive. In-between, the offense picked up one first down and then had to punt.

Even so, the Black Knights still had a chance after Ellington had found Aubrey Payne for the go-ahead touchdown from eight-yards-out and then converted a two-point conversion to make it 28-21.

There was plenty of time left—7:41 to be exact. They were able to drive the ball into Georgia State territory, three times converting on fourth-down to keep the drive and the game alive. But after McCoy had picked up four yards to the Panthers 34 on a fourth-and-two, the offense again bogged down.

Kell Walker, clearly not 100 percent, carried for one yard (he had three carries for 10 yards all night); Hopkins complete a short pass to Artice Hobbs IV for four yards to set up third-and-four at the 28. But Malik Hancock was stopped for no gain and Army again faced fourth-down with exactly a minute left in the game.

Hoping to surprise the defense, Hopkins tried to go deep to Harrison, but this time there were three defenders in the area and Quavian White stepped in front of Harrison to make the interception with 47 seconds left.

Drive, over. Ballgame, over. Season in jeopardy.

The encouraging thing is this: the major goals are still out there: win the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy for a third straight year and go to a fourth straight bowl game.

But the task has gotten a lot more daunting since the Friday night in August when the season began.

Navy and Air Force are both markedly improved: The Midshipmen pushed their record to 5-1 with a 35-3 rout of South Florida on Saturday, quarterback Malcolm Perry rushing for 188 yards while the vastly improved defense held the Bulls in check all day. Air Force is 5-2, having bounced back from a crushing loss at Navy two weeks ago with two impressive wins: one over Fresno State, where they outscored the Bulldogs 21-0 in the second half after trailing at the break and then routing Hawai'i—at Hawai'i—56-26 late Saturday.

Both will be tough outs and Air Force, in two weeks, is at Colorado Springs.

As for the bowl game, Army now has five games left to win three games—since the game against FCS team VMI won't count towards the six games needed. There are home games against San Jose State and Massachusetts. There are also road games against Air Force and Hawaii and the Army-Navy game in Philadelphia. As October has proven emphatically, no game this season against a good team is going to be anything but an absolute 60-minute gut-check.

San Jose State—also an improved team—comes to Michie on Saturday. No doubt Mr. Beckerle will point out to me in the pre-game that this will be a 'must, must, absolute must,' win.

He'll be right. To get pointed in the right direction for November and December, Army must end the carnage of October right away. If not sooner.

Army West Point Athletics

Feinstein's Findings: Regroup and Refocus

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Players Mentioned

Jakobi Buchanan

Cole Christiansen

Malik Hancock

Artice Hobbs IV

Sandon McCoy

Jalen Moy

Connor Slomka

Kell Walker

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